The success of the Roman Empire is also climate history

By Caroline Zoffmann Jessen, czj@sdu.dk, 11/26/2024

In the space of just two centuries (between 264 and 44 BCE), the Roman polity was transformed from a local power into an empire. Historians have hitherto attributed this transformation to the Roman social and political institutions which gave it the ability to colonize and maintain control over new territories.

This project, by contrast, focuses on the period’s climate, exploring how an increasingly warm and wet climate made intensive agricultural production possible in Italy, which in turn enabled the Empire to feed both its population and its soldiers.The project employs an interdisciplinary methodology to examine the extent to which natural climate change contributed to the expansion of the Roman Empire into one of the largest empires in European history.

Professor Jesper Majbom Madsen says:
-When we think about the connection between climate and conflict, we sometimes overlook how climate change can indirectly change the balance of power. This might include gradual changes in regional climate, which might affect a state’s agricultural production and thus the ability to feed its own population. In the northern hemisphere, the temperature is rising and the ice is disappearing. This could form the basis for increasing agricultural productivity and increasing production of the food that the Global South will increasingly need.

So even though the changes in the climate in the time of the Roman Empire may seem far away, these changes still offer insights about the climate's influence on geopolitics that are relevant today”. From a historical perspective, conflicts have often been closely linked to changes in the availability of natural resources. This project examines what role climate change has played in the past and uses knowledge about the importance of climate change when preparing models for future scenarios and changing balances of power in the world. 

Roman History and Climate Data
Based on the collection of available climate data from Italy, Macedonia and Asia Minor from the period 4th to 1st century BCE, a comprehensive dataset is being developed on temperature increases and precipitation, the choice and distribution of crops, growing conditions and yields in these three regions.

Head of the SDU Climate Cluster, Professor Sebastian Mernild, is pleased with the unconventional coupling of Roman history and climate data in the project:

- At the SDU Climate Cluster, we are delighted with the grant and look forward to linking the two scientific traditions together in an interdisciplinary project. It is obvious that by using models and information on past climate change and its connection with geopolitics, even better predictions can be made for the connection between future climate change and geopolitical changes.

The project is being carried out in collaboration with researchers at the University of St. Andrews, University of Toronto, University of Aalborg and University of Uppsala.